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Posts Tagged ‘national championship’

I think I can confidently predict that—even if both teams lose a game or two—that Florida and Texas will play for the FBS National Championship in January.

“How is this?” you12319882-800x533 ask. After all, the 2009 football season is only a few weeks old and already “surprise upsets” are the talk of the season. No. 4 Ohio State lost to USC who then lost to Washington. No. 9 Oklahoma State beat Georgia only to lose to Houston the next week. Oklahoma started out at No. 3 and lost to BYU, who moved up to No. 7 and then promptly was blown out last week by unranked Florida State. The latest Top 10 team to fall? No. 4 Mississippi at the hands of South Carolina last night. Seriously? South Carolina, who barely beat N.C. State, beat Ole Miss?

Even when Top 10 teams win, there are still questions. Why didn’t Florida reduce Lane Kiffin’s lackadaisical band of vagabond players to rubble? How did Texas Tech manage to give Texas a game? Why are the only teams being destroyed regularly are the hapless Division I-AA and lower teams playing the Top 10?

These questions lead to other, bigger questions. Why is Ohio State always considered a National Contender only to be embarrassed in post-season bowl games? Why is the Top 10 always so Big 10 heavy? Why has Texas been considered a national contender for the past few years, even when their quarterback was a sophomore and their defensive line looked like a slice of swiss cheese?

So, surely with all this excitement and supposed parity in the conferences, no one would be bold enough to predict the BCS Champion at this point in the season, right?

Wrong. Anyone can figure it out if we throw out the idealistic notion that the football polls are actually based on how good the players and coaches are. Sports commentators are paid big bucks to perpetrate this myth and, toward the end of the season, they even enlist the aid of scary looking laptops running algorithms to compare stats to back up their opinions. But just like that op-ed piece in the Washington Post that uses statistics to back it up, it’s still an opinion. (more…)

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